Published September 15th, 2007
in Real Estate.
It was only a matter of time before another Homebuilder CEO would claim that the housing market had bottomed. Ara Hovnanian, CEO Hovnanian Enterprises, put his stake in the ground on yesterday 9/14/07 per Bloomberg. Apparently he learned from Robert Toll’s pronouncement in March. He added a caveat to his claim, “The bottom is very near but I think it’s going to stay along the bottom for a while before a recovery.”
If the bottom is in why is Hovanian having a fire sale this weekend or as they are dubbing it the “Deal of the Century.” The company is offering discounts of up to almost $150,000 on homes.
If there is one thing that I have learned from the stock market - it is that picking bottoms is a losing proposition. Matter of fact, I will pass on the first 15-20% off the bottom. The bottom can only be identified in hindsight. In other words, the bottom is in when Homebuilders start raising prices not having fire sales.
Published June 21st, 2007
in Real Estate and Trading School.
You don’t have to be a brain surgeon to realize that housing market is not going to turn around overnight. Even the homebuilder CEOs are finally admitting that this environment “sucks.” Economist Nouriel Roubini has been calling this blood bath for what is for awhile. I haven’t seen him on Kudlow and Company in awhile. My guess is that he is a little too bearish for old Larry.
Excuse me as I digress for a moment, but speaking of bears…. Peter Schiff is by far the most bearish guest to ever set foot in CNBC studios. It cracks me up when they invite him on the show. In the midst of possibly the most bullish market since 2000, Schiff, a U.S. market bear, is out performing most bulls by investing in foreign securities. It throws the bulls for a loop in the bull/bear debates as they expect him to sit in a corner eating humble pie. At the end of the debates, they wish that they were more bearish. LOL - Sorry, sometimes I write this stuff for my own entertainment.
Back to Nouriel…. Continue reading ‘Trading Thru the Housing Blood Bath’
Published June 17th, 2007
in Real Estate.
There are many caught in the cross fires of the housing bubble. Here is a story of a real estate investor who got caught up in the mania in 2005. He bought a waterfront property in the hopes of subdividing it, creating a luxury “dream” home for himself and another to sell for profit. Unfortunately, he is stuck with a luxury vacation home no one wants and his unfinished dream home is ready for auction.
Source: BBN TV
Published May 23rd, 2007
in Real Estate.
Since bottoming on April 12th, the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up 12.5%; twice as much as the S&P 500’s gain of 6%. If you are surprised by that statement you are not alone. I still find it hard to believe even after staring at the chart. Continue reading ‘Homebuilders Rallying: How Could This Be?’
Published April 14th, 2007
in Real Estate.
Casey Serin has become the poster child for “liar-loans” also known as Alt-A loans. I have written several articles (here and here) on the Subprime/Alt-A debacle. Casey’s use of these loans played a critical role in his multiple foreclosures. IndyMac (NDE) is the leading Alt-A lender. Their day in the spot-light is coming soon.
Here is yet another article on Casey’s misfortunes.
More …
Published April 7th, 2007
in Real Estate.
More than a million people bought Pet Rocks as Christmas gifts in 1975. Gary Dahl, of Los Gatos, California, had the idea while joking with friends about his easy-to-care-for pet, a rock. This pet ate nothing and didn’t bark or chew the furniture. Pet Rocks were sold with a funny manual that included tips on how to handle an excited rock and how to teach it tricks. By 1976, Gary Dahl was a millionaire and Pet Rocks were the nation’s favorite pet.
Up until the past 2 years , flipping real estate had become the nation’s new favorite pet. Easy to take care of and printed money on command. When anything becomes too EASY- you better believe that trouble is around the corner.
Be careful out there. There are still yahoos out there pushing get rich real estate flipping schemes. Most are now bragging about the millions to be made in foreclosures. Continue reading ‘There’s Still Money to be Made in Flipping Real Estate’
Published April 6th, 2007
in Real Estate.
Are you ready for a wild ride? US Home prices adjusted for inflation plotted as a roller coaster:
Click here……
I think that some heads are going to roll when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are forced to admit that the subprime mortgage problem is not contained. In my previous professional life, I worked as a sales person for a software company. We as sales people were often referred to as “feet on the street.” In addition to our sales responsibilities, we were responsible for gathering competitive information, surveying the landscape, detecting trends and most importantly feeding this data back to headquarters. Through formal as well as informal channels, the “feet on the street” ensured that the executives always had the most current field data. Since the executives were constantly speaking to Wall Street or in Industry forums inaccurate data could be very costly in many ways. Continue reading ‘Subprime Mortgage Problem Contained? Give Me a Break!’
Published March 23rd, 2007
in Real Estate.
Real Estate investors should be looking for opportunities within this debacle. Certain niches are still growing.
Source: Real Estate Journal
The real-estate slowdown has forced some investors to change tactics. Gone are the days when an investor could buy a single-family home or condo, flip it, and walk away with a sizeable profit just weeks or months later without much effort. But there’s one niche that continues to show promise for investors undaunted by the slumping housing market: college-town real estate.
This segment has recently caught the attention of large institutional investors like American Campus Communities, a publicly traded real-estate investment trust that earns 95% of its revenues from ownership of off-campus housing, according to Bill Bayless, chief executive officer of the Austin, Texas-based company. He and real-estate experts like Michael H. Zaransky, co-CEO of Prime Property Investors Ltd., a real-estate investment firm in North Brook, Ill., point to rising university enrollments and increasingly limited on-campus housing as two factors that make buying and renting out college-town housing an attractive investment.
While institutional investors like American Campus Communities — which builds large, multiple-unit housing projects for students in campus towns — compete with individual real-estate investors, there is still plenty of room for smaller property owners to profit, Mr. Bayless says.
“I think it is among the top real-estate niches for any real-estate investor to look into,” Mr. Zaransky says. “It is not tied to general economic performance. It is tied solely to growth and enrollment in schools.”
More …
Published March 20th, 2007
in Real Estate and Absolute Must Reads.
On March 15, IndyMac released a rather lengthy press release claiming that it had been inappropriately categorized by many media sources as a subprime lender. IndyMac stated that it is primarily a prime/Alt-A mortgage lender with minimal exposure to subprime. With the subprime lenders in melt-down mode, it is quite understandable why IndyMac would want to differentiate itself. However, in doing so it brought more attention to itself and was featured in an article by CNN Money called “Liar loans: Mortgage Woes Beyond Subprime.” Sometimes it pays just to be quiet.
What is Alt-A?
Continue reading ‘We Are Not a Subprime Lender!’
FEED
Reviews