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Archive for the 'Investing - Metals' Category

Jim Rogers On Commodities

With China and India growing fast, famed investor - Jim Rogers, thinks the current commodities bull market has plenty of room to go…

HAI: What are the most pressing issues that commodity investors should understand?

Rogers: They should understand that until somebody brings on a lot of supply, commodities will do well. If people start seeing windmills on every roof and solar panels on every house, then maybe this [commodities boom] is coming to an end. If somebody discovers a gigantic gas field in Berlin, maybe this will start to change. Investors need to watch and see when and if new sources of supply develop.

But really, short of worldwide economic collapse, the best place to be is in commodities. There is no shortage of stocks. The world is cranking out new stocks every day. No one is cranking out new lead mines every day. People need to get a basic understanding of supply and demand, and then they’ll figure out what the big picture is, and they will make money.

More …

Potential Private-Equity Bid for BHP Billiton

In 2005, when I constructed the Big-Build Out (BBO) portfolio I imagined that there would be turn-over due to mergers and acquisitions.  However, never in my wildest dreams did I envision the world’s largest mining company, BHP Billiton, as a target.  Acquirer yes.  Target no way! That just demonstrates how much money is sloshing around looking for a home.

If you are not familiar with theory behind the BBO take look at its backgrounder.  The portfolio is up over 25% year to date.

Here is the current BBO roster: Continue reading ‘Potential Private-Equity Bid for BHP Billiton’

Is China Too Hot?

I am sure many were concerned on April 19th as it appeared that the markets were in for a repeat of the China led melt-down on February 27.  The Chinese Stock Market’s negative take on the countries 11.1% first quarter growth rate spilled over to Europe and cast a black cloud over the U.S. Markets as it opened.  The surge in growth rate coupled with a higher than acceptable consumer price index and a 23.7% growth in fixed-asset investment prompted statements such as the following from the government: 

“If this type of fast growth continues, there is the possibility of shifting from fast growth to overheating. There is that risk,” Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, told a news conference.

The government will work to “reduce the country’s large trade surplus, limit rapid growth in house prices and maintain basic price stability” – was posted on the State council’s Web site following a meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao

Continue reading ‘Is China Too Hot?’

Xstrata Says China Commodity Demand Is `Phenomenal’

Global growth - you gotta love it!  It is the basis on my investment strategy.

Source: Bloomberg 

By Luzi Ann Javier and Xiao Yu

April 2 (Bloomberg) — Charlie Sartain, chief executive for copper at Xstrata Plc, the world’s fifth-largest miner, said the growth in China’s demand for all commodities “is just phenomenal,” and prices may rise for the next few years.

Demand for copper in the Asian country may increase 8 percent to 10 percent this year compared with 2006, Sartain said in an interview in Manila. “We do see, across all commodities, phenomenal growth,” he said.

China, the world’s fastest growing major economy, has spurred a five-year rally in commodity prices as manufacturers use more steel, nickel and tin. The price of copper on the London Metal Exchange rose to a record $8,800 a ton last May. China is the world’s largest user of the metal.

The “Chinese economy will keep growing strongly and so will commodities demand, including copper,” Chen Yue, Shenzhen- based analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co., said today. “We are bullish on copper prices for the next few years.” Continue reading ‘Xstrata Says China Commodity Demand Is `Phenomenal’’

Sayonara Gold Stocks

I have sold at the bottom far more times than I care to admit.  However, if this is another occasion so be it - Sayonara, Au Revoir, Adios Gold stocks.

I purchased my first gold stock, Royal Gold, in May of 2002.  At the time, I really didn’t know much about gold or gold stocks and had no idea that it was the beginning of a bull market in gold.  Royal Gold met the criteria of a screen that I was using at the time and it simply was one of many stocks that popped out.  The trade didn’t work as I had hoped.  After a quick 20% haircut, I sold it three weeks later.  This didn’t discourage me.  As I read more about gold, I realized that something special was in the makings.

Continue reading ‘Sayonara Gold Stocks’

Profiting From Companies That Sell What China Wants

I was watching CNBC yesterday morning waiting for the Trade report to be released.  At exactly 8:30am, Becky Quick went to Rick Santelli at the Chicago Board of Trade for the report.  “For December the trade deficit increased $61.2 billion exceeding expectations of $59.7 billion.  November was revised down from $58.2 billion to $58.1 billion.  Back to you Becky,” reported Rick.   I am sure at direction of the producers - Becky quickly moved on to the next story.  

That was it.  No reaction from the trading pits.  No economist droning on and on.  Why not show the traders jumping up and down? Why no droning?  Simple – the story wasn’t U.S. Stock Market positive.  Even worse it was U.S. Dollar bearish.  They should have had a webcam on me to capture my big smile.  I was smiling, because I knew this report would create a positive back drop for gold to follow-through on last week’s move through $670/oz. 

Continue reading ‘Profiting From Companies That Sell What China Wants’

BHP Billiton : “Where Opportunity Meets Preparation”

Every now and then the market wakes me up with good news.  Since BHP Billiton, the No. 1 mining company in the world, is based in Australia - it did the opposite and tucked me into bed after announcing another record set of earnings and a $10 billion share buyback.  Yes, that’s 10 billion - with a “b.”   This is in addition to a previously announced $3 billion.  Not only did it announce the buyback, but it increased its dividend for the 10th consecutive time.  It doesn’t stop there.  The company has also earmarked $17.5 billion for 29 new projects worldwide and still has cash for potential acquisitions.  Wow, this company is printing money faster than Ben Bernanke. 

Continue reading ‘BHP Billiton : “Where Opportunity Meets Preparation”’

The Gold Bulls are Coming Out of Hiding

There is a lot of bullish Gold commentary floating around.  If this is the real deal - I am locked and loaded.  Refer to the portfolio threads to see where my money is parked.

Source:  January Gold Report
In conclusion, I would like to make one more change in my December forecast. I stated that, looking a little further out in the calendar, I believe we’ll see a close above US $730.40 in the spring of 2007 and a new all-time high sometime later in the year. I now believe that this leg up will not exhaust itself until we see a $775.00 print at the very least. This market spent months, from May 11, 2006 until January 25, 2007, being compressed into a tighter and tighter trading range and I don’t believe we did that to simply rally another $70.00 or so.

Source: Gold Powering Up for Major Uptrend
Because gold stalled out again at the zone of heavy resistance centered just above $660 last week and didn’t actually end the week up all that much, many investors haven’t cottoned on to the significance of last weeks’ breakout. So let us be absolutely clear, it was MASSIVELY SIGNIFICANT, and we shall be much obliged to those sellers last week who are providing us with a last chance to board the train before it leaves the station. This is the time to load up with promising stocks across the board.

The Dollar & Gold Relationship

On yesterday I mentioned once again that gold is inversely related to the dollar.  Since I keep harping on this point, I thought an example might be helpful to illustrate the relationship.  This may bring back some bad flashbacks from math class, so if you really don’t care of the “why” - just remember that gold and the dollar move inversely to each other and that will put money in your pocket.

Gold is priced in US Dollars (USD).  So, if it is currently selling at 640 USD/oz - it requires the exchange of 640 USD for 1 ounce of gold anywhere in the world.  Thus owners of non US Dollars must exchange their currency for USD to purchase gold. This happens behind the scene and is transparent to the purchaser. Therefore by definition the price of gold is linked to foreign exchange rates.

Continue reading ‘The Dollar & Gold Relationship’

2007 Year of the Golden Piggy Bank

In my article, “Wealth Building Thru Gold Investing - It is All About Supply and Demand” I stated that Asians have a strong affinity for gold and as Asian investors become wealthier their ownership of gold will increase.  The sheer number of potential Asian investors buying small amounts of gold will create an unprecedented demand driving the price of gold higher.  The following provides additional support for my position.

Continue reading ‘2007 Year of the Golden Piggy Bank’

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