On the surface, this appears to be a win-win deal.  The investor is always in the right mix of assets – in essence improving their returns.  Wall Street converts haphazard adjustments into a nice predictable fee generating event.  So, how are these products performing this year?

(more…)

Capitulation is when there is a tidal wave of frantic selling typically over a day or two.  Basically everyone throws in the towel and says “no mas.”  The DOW is down 23% this month.  The S&P 500 is down 40% year to date. Commodity stocks are down 50-70% this year.  Does the market really have to go down another 10%, in a day, for people to say “Uncle?”

The theory is that after everyone finishes up chucking - the market can begin its recovery.  Maybe it will play out that way.  However, with some many people looking for it - I am sure that Mr. Market will have something else in mind. (more…)

Imagine the 20 year older investing their first $1000 into the market watching it get sliced in half in less than a year.  How about the 35 year older, who has been religiously participating in their company’s 401K program, suddenly realizing that their money would have been better off in a savings account paying 1% for the past 10 years.

(more…)

Although hurricane Gustav’s bark was bigger than its bite, I understand that it will be November before production is back to 95% pre-hurricane levels.  Basic economics states that a decrease in supply results in an increase in price.  Oil pricing was falling before the hurricane, but shouldn’t a hurricane at least slow the decline?  Prices continued to fall when a second hurricane, Ike, barreled into the Gulf a few weeks later.

(more…)

It would prove an interesting story on your thought process over the years to finally waking up one day and deciding to quit. Obviously that’s overly dramatic as no one should quit a job without an idea or better yet much of their income replaced by their new venture. It would help those who may currently be racked with fear of the “what ifs” and at least determine if going solo is for them.

Video Expressions was my first entrepreneurial venture in 1991. It was through that experience that I learned that it is possible to eat without a 9 to 5. Most people from the time that they are 4 or 5 years old start thinking about what they want to be when they grow up. Initially, it is fireman or baseball player – later it becomes refined based on our aptitude. In 11th grade, since I was good in math, I was invited to participate in an after school program to encourage kids to pursue engineering. From that point on, I was determined to become an engineer - especially when I found out how much money they made.

(more…)

a) Drill, Drill, Drill: off-shore, ANWAR

b) Renewables: wind, solar, bio-fuels, etc.

c) Conservation: car pool, public transportation, etc.

d) All of the above

As soon as a politicians realize that the answer is all of the above, the sooner we will get out of this mess.

T. Boone Pickens is creating great dialog with his plan. It is the best one I have heard yet…..

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his buddies didn’t sleep much either. One hour before the market opened, Bernanke announced an emergency 0.75% interest rate cut (Fed Slashes Key Rate). Since, the Fed normally moves in quarter point, at most half point, increments - the magnitude of the cut stopped the markets in its tracks. The market would regain its footing and grind higher over the next 6 weeks. (more…)

When you bought into the gospel of “stocks for the long run,” did you have any idea how long the long run can turn out to be? Exactly 10 years ago, the S&P 500 index was at 1164; it closed on Friday at 1239. That’s an annualized average return of 0.63%. At that rate it will take you 111 more years to double your money in the stock market. - 6/12/08 Wall Street Journal

Congress has its own opinion and Big Oil is squarely in the bulls-eye. In a demonstration of their concern, they marched the oil company executives in for a round of questioning this past week. The hyperbole is even louder on the campaign trail as increased taxation on the oil companies is shouted every day. Apparently the CNBC crowd hasn’t bought into this rhetoric, but if that poll was conducted on a general news outlet - I would bet that Big Oil is public enemy number one.

To get beyond the hype I like to turn to the alternative media outlets. (more…)

Just for the heck of it – I went back and reviewed all of the 2007 Real Money portfolio trades. There were 10 trades that traded over 15% that were eventually sold at a smaller percentage. Those trades were sold at an average of 7.9%. There were also 8 trades that sold over 15%. Those trades were sold at an average of 23.5%.

So, my “friend” was right. Using the 2007 Real Money portfolio as a proxy, I did have more stocks go from 15% to 10% than from 15% to 25%. However, the results were NOT better when using a sell target. That being said, I must admit that the difference in performance weren’t earth shattering.

(more…)