On Thursday, June 15, the Admiral, Eric Bolling, of CNBC’s Fast Money, presented an update to his Agricultural Stock trade (Ag Play). To capitalize on the trend of higher commodity prices allowing farmers to spend more money on new equipment, higher yielding seeds and better fertilizers – he constructed a four stock portfolio.
The stocks are Monsanto Company (MON), a seed producer, Agrium Inc. (AGU), a fertilizer supplier, Bunge Limited (BG), a grain and seed processor and Deere (DE), a farming equipment company. I have been trading energy as well as precious and base metal stocks for a number of years. The idea of playing soft commodities via the stock market was quite appealing. I wrote about it in “Eric Bolling’s Agriculture Stock Play: Is it Too Late?”
Continue reading ‘How I Made Eric Bolling’s Agricultural Stock Play My Own’
Published June 25th, 2007
in Portfolio - Updates (all).
The near collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds, tied to the subprime market, grabbed the headlines sending stocks to their worst performance since March. Due to an increase in mortgage delinquencies and defaults, the underlying values of the hedge funds have dropped significantly since the beginning of the year. Merrill Lynch, a large investor in the funds, concerned about their performance asked for its investment back. This kicked off a flurry of activity as well as generated concern that this may be signaling larger problems ahead for credit markets.
In spite of this activity and a 2% decline in the broad market, our portfolios held up extremely well. Continue reading ‘Week in Review 6/22 - Hedge Funds Cause Jitters’
This thread tracks real trades in one of my portfolios. Refer to backgrounder for more info.
Coming into this past week I was expecting to give back a significant part of the previous week’s 5% gain. Pleasantly, the Real Money portfolio held court; closing out the week with a slight 0.1% gain. This was in the midst of a 2% down week in the S&P 500. You gotta love that.
I am expecting some significant downside pressure at the beginning of the week as the Bear Stearns Hedge fund blow-up has given the market the jitters. “How Might the Subprime Issues Unravel“ is an excellent article by Barry Ritholtz that summarizes the situation pretty well. All we can do is put of stops in place and let the market do what it does…
No trades this past week.
YTD: Real Money 12.5% v S&P 500 5.9%
Published June 21st, 2007
in Real Estate and Trading School.
You don’t have to be a brain surgeon to realize that housing market is not going to turn around overnight. Even the homebuilder CEOs are finally admitting that this environment “sucks.” Economist Nouriel Roubini has been calling this blood bath for what is for awhile. I haven’t seen him on Kudlow and Company in awhile. My guess is that he is a little too bearish for old Larry.
Excuse me as I digress for a moment, but speaking of bears…. Peter Schiff is by far the most bearish guest to ever set foot in CNBC studios. It cracks me up when they invite him on the show. In the midst of possibly the most bullish market since 2000, Schiff, a U.S. market bear, is out performing most bulls by investing in foreign securities. It throws the bulls for a loop in the bull/bear debates as they expect him to sit in a corner eating humble pie. At the end of the debates, they wish that they were more bearish. LOL - Sorry, sometimes I write this stuff for my own entertainment.
Back to Nouriel…. Continue reading ‘Trading Thru the Housing Blood Bath’
My jaw hit the ground last week when Eric Bolling, of CNBC’s Fast Money, stated that his agriculture play was up 59% year to date. It hit the floor a second time when he mentioned how he was playing the sector. I have been trading commodity stocks for awhile, primarily gold, energy and base metal producers. The soft commodities (coffee, sugar, grains) have caught my attention on occasion. However, I couldn’t figure out how to trade them via the stock market and I wasn’t interested in the futures market.
Jim Rogers stirred my interest a few years ago when I read his book “Hot Commodities.” He made it quite clear that we are in the midst of bull market in all “real things” not only oil, natural gas, and metals, but also wheat, corn, soybeans, etc. However, Rogers cut his teeth as a commodity trader. He believes that the best way to participate is to buy the underlying commodity (futures) or a commodity index fund. Since futures are not for me and mutual funds are right up there with watching paint dry, his book didn’t provide any implementation insight that I could leverage. Continue reading ‘Eric Bolling’s Agriculture Stock Play: Is it Too Late?’
Published June 19th, 2007
in Absolute Must Reads and Trading School.
I am often asked how I determine entries and exits for my trades. Let’s take a look at a real time example and walk through the process. It is currently 11:00 AM New York Time on Tuesday June 19, 2007.
First and most importantly, I determine how much risk I am willing to take on a trade. My preference is to limit risk to 1-2% of my portfolio. In this example, I will use a portfolio size of $50,000 and limit the risk to 1%. So that means I am willing to only lose $500 on a trade (1% of $50K). Continue reading ‘Stalking a Trade Thru the Eyes of a Trader’
Published June 17th, 2007
in Portfolio - Updates (all).
Unless this is your first time reading this site, you know that I am predominately a commodity stock investor. However, like many I learned to trade during the Internet bubble years with the likes of Cisco, Microsoft and Intel. After watching my portfolio melt down in 2000, I swore off tech stocks. I would dabble here and there, but a few weeks ago I made my first significant investment in tech in years. Interestingly, I back into the positions through my new love commodity stocks. Read all about it here.
Of all the news last week, PPI/CPI in line, oil flirting with $68/ barrel - the most exciting was Intel making a new 52 week high. If there is one truism in the stock market - it is that tech leads the market and semiconductors lead tech. Intel, the granddady of semiconductors, is making a comeback. This could be a fun ride.
BTW, the porfolios were on fire this week. Let’s take a look. Continue reading ‘Week in Review 6/15 - Is Intel Back?’
Published June 17th, 2007
in Real Estate.
There are many caught in the cross fires of the housing bubble. Here is a story of a real estate investor who got caught up in the mania in 2005. He bought a waterfront property in the hopes of subdividing it, creating a luxury “dream” home for himself and another to sell for profit. Unfortunately, he is stuck with a luxury vacation home no one wants and his unfinished dream home is ready for auction.
Source: BBN TV
This thread tracks real trades in one of my portfolios. Refer to backgrounder for more info.
Another +5% week. You know what that means - we will probably give a good chunk of it back this coming week. That’s the crazy market these days. Volatility rules. Let’s take a look at this past week’s action. Continue reading ‘Real Money Portfolio - Update 6/15′
Published June 16th, 2007
in Women and Money.
The last time I checked women comprised about 15% of my mailing list. As a service to them, I often read articles on Women & Money and share the good ones that I find. Many articles have the same premise claiming that “women tend to invest more conservatively than men.” I just stumbled upon one that takes it a little farther.
The article states that a “Financial Gender Gap” study conducted by Prudential Securities revealed significant differences in how men and women invest. The study places investors in one of the following three zones: Action, Comfort and Caution. Continue reading ‘Overcoming the Financial Gender Gap’
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