Published April 14th, 2008
in Trading School.
I had lunch with a friend last week and he said - why don’t you simply sell after you have a 15% gain in the bag? My response was that you will never have a 25% or 30% winner if you always sell after a 15% gain. He said – it seems like you have more trades that go from 15% to 10% than 15% to 25%.
Just for the heck of it – I went back and reviewed all of the 2007 Real Money portfolio trades. There were 10 trades that traded over 15% that were eventually sold at a smaller percentage. Those trades were sold at an average of 7.9%. There were also 8 trades that sold over 15%. Those trades were sold at an average of 23.5%.
So, my “friend” was right. Using the 2007 Real Money portfolio as a proxy, I did have more stocks go from 15% to 10% than from 15% to 25%. However, the results were NOT better when using a sell target. That being said, I must admit that the difference in performance weren’t earth shattering.
Continue reading ‘Stock Trading Plans are Personal’
Published March 31st, 2008
in Financial Freedom and Time & Money News.
The farther the calendar moves away from 3/31/2006, the day I walked away from a 20 year career in Sales, Marketing and Engineering, the less I have to explain why I said good-bye to a 6-figure job to trade full-time on my own account. That’s good, because it was pretty hard to explain anyway. The job was rewarding. I worked with great people. So, what was the problem?
I was never cut out to work a job. I am an entrepreneur by nature. I love trying to make something happen. Risk and uncertainty are not scary to me. Now every day that I wake up - I am faced with these challenges.
Interestingly, when you migrate towards your true passion - the money follows. My lifestyle hasn’t changed one bit since I quit the 9 to 5. I haven’t missed a meal. We still have our house in the suburbs and drive nice cars. Our vacations have actually upgraded a little.
Interestingly there are now some people who have only known me as a financial guy. Most think that I am some kind of financial advisor. I still haven’t come up with a good quick way to explain what I do. A stock trading financial freedom advocate will have to do for now.
Published March 31st, 2008
in Trading School.
Wall Street has many great sayings. One that I try to live by is “let your winners run and sell your losers quickly.” Many people buy into the “letting your winners run” part, because they have also bought in to Wall Street’s buy and hold philosophy. However, unless you are planning on “letting your winners run” until retirement – you will need to sell at some point. So when do you sell. In particularly, when do you sell a winner? Let’s take a closer look.
If you really think about it - you have two options for selling a stock: selling as it is rising (into strength) or selling as it falling (into weakness). To accomplish yet another famous Wall Street saying, buy low and sell high, by definition - one must sell into strength.
Selling into strength is a proactive trading strategy. It requires selling when a stock is still rising but is expected to reverse. The problem is trying to determine if a stock is preparing to reverse or if it is simply pausing on its way higher. This is a critical decision point.
Continue reading ‘Let Your Winners Run and Cut Your Losses Quickly’
Published March 17th, 2008
in Investing - General.
It is getting uglier and uglier. Bear Stearns (BSC) a major Wall Street investment bank nearly filed for bankruptcy this weekend. In a fire sale, J.P. Morgan with backing from the Fed bought Bear Stearns for $2 per share. Bear Stearns closed at $30 per share on Friday. A little over a year ago, January 2007, Bear Stearns traded at $170 per share.
It is simply amazing how much wealth is being lost during this “financial mess.” Billionaire investor Joesph Lewis is light about a billion bucks since his ill-timed investment in Bear late last year. That will sting a little, but he will be OK. However, there are many regular folks at Bear Stearns who are in the red zone (0-5 years from retirement). Their retirements have been delayed, significantly modified or simply won’t happen.
The reason for this blog is that I know many people who have substantial assets tied up in their company’s options and stock programs. Like they say, a recession is when your neighbor gets laid off - a depression is when you get laid off. I am not sure what they say when your retirement gets wiped out, but it “ain’t” good.
Diversify. Diversify. Diversify.
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Friends of TTaMG have been maneuvering quite well during this market turmoil. As of 3/14/08, our Real Money Portfolio is up 8.5% v. -12.8% for the S&P 500.
Check out a sample report and then become a Friend of TTaMG.
In my report last week to my subscribers, I said the following:
“Some may recall that last year - our timing on becoming fully invested wasn’t the best. On almost every occasion it usually preceded a sell off. Hopefully this time will be different, but let’s not be too careless.”
Based on Friday’s action, I don’t think that this time will be any different. Although our Real Money portfolio closed up 1.1% for the week, it sold off 3.3% on Friday turning a great week into a good week. All of the major indices sold off around 2.5% for the day and closed down for the week.
Matter of fact, Friday marked the fourth consecutive losing month for the market. I looked back over the past 10 years and this is the third time that the market (as represented by the S&P 500) has strung together four losing months. The other two times happened 2001 and 2002. We haven’t had five losers over that time period. If we do happen to break the streak – we will undoubtedly be in an official bear market. Many are already claiming that we are already there.
Bear markets conjure up significant anxieties amongst individual investors. Interestingly its Wall Street’s buy and hold crap, sorry for the vernacular, that does most investors in. Continue reading ‘Now is Not the Time to Listen to Wall Street’
Published February 26th, 2008
in Portfolio - Updates (all).
Thanks for stopping by and checking out the site. As a bonus for visiting, I have made available the latest and greatest Time & Money Report. This report is released each week to Friends of TTaMG. Intra-week buy and sell signals are also issued when appropriate.
As of 2/22/08, our Real Money Portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by 17.2%. The Real Money Portfolio is up 9.4% v. S&P 500 -7.8%. With that kind of performance, it won’t take long to recover your $20/month subscription fee. Check out the freebie and then become a Friend of TTaMG.
Published January 8th, 2008
in Portfolio - Updates (all).
It was a great year at The Time & Money Group. In the New Year, I hope to share more insight on how I broke the shackles of my 9 to 5. Who knows - I may get back to writing my book (check out the Prequel). However, in the mean time I will continue sharing stock trading / investing strategies with those that are interested.
Our most conservative strategy once again delivered double digit returns and handily outperformed the S&P 500: 13.8% vs. 3.5%. As far as investing strategies goes, it doesn’t get much easier. To my dismay, most will find a reason not to employ it. If it wasn’t so simple I would charge big bucks for it. Here it is gift wrapped, free of charge, for you again – read ”The No-Brainer Investment Strategy to Double Digit Returns” for the details.
If you need a little more oomph – sign up for The Time & Money Report. As some of you may recall, The Time & Money Report started out as a thread on my blog. It has evolved into a real-time alert service. Now, subscribers receive emails when I buy and sell stocks in the Real Money portfolio. In 2007, subscribers that followed the alerts pocketed 28.6%.
Here are the year end statistics for the 2007 Real Money Portfolio:
There is no guarantee of similar results, but I am certainly going to try. Give The Time & Money Report a try in the New Year.
I have added a monthly subscription option that can be cancelled at any time. No partial month refunds are given.
Published December 23rd, 2007
in Portfolio - Updates (all).
Just when you think that we must be on the naughty list – Old St. Nick comes through. We can thank companies such as Adobe Systems (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL) and our old friend Research in Motion (RIMM) for putting the market in such a festive mode. All reported earnings last week that beat expectations. Has the slowdown in US enterprise spending been overstated? Some analysts are now are questioning that hypothesis.
For the week, the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were up 0.8%, 1.1% and 2.1% respectively. Commodities soared. Gold, silver, copper and oil were up 2.2%, 3.6%, 4.8% and 1.9% respectively. Gold stocks, as represented by the XAU, were up 1.3%.
Continue reading ‘Time & Money Review 12/21/07 – Santa Spotted on Wall Street’
Published December 16th, 2007
in Portfolio - Updates (all).
The Fed didn’t win any friends last week. The market sold off 300 points after their policy announcement on Tuesday. The market’s poor response prompted the Fed, the following morning, to announce a coordinated plan with the European Central Bank, the Swiss National and the Bank of England to address the credit crunch. After an initial positive reaction, the market sold off as investors attempted to decipher the plan.
Many traders were outraged as they were blown out of their positions courtesy of the Fed’s actions. Well-respected trader, Dennis Gartman, called for Bernanke’s resignation on CNBC. The outcries will only grow louder as Bernanke continues learning on the job. Unfortunately, investors are being stuck with his student loans.
Continue reading ‘Time & Money Review 12/14/07 – Investors Suffer as Bernanke Learns on the Job’
Published December 8th, 2007
in Portfolio - Updates (all).
The DOW popped for 196 and 175 on Wednesday and Thursday as the bulls anticipate Bernanke spreading good cheer in next week’s FOMC meeting. There is so much turmoil surrounding the credit markets and the sub prime debacle that passing out a lump of coal (no rate cut) can’t be a serious option. Will a ¼ point cut be enough to kick off the traditional Santa Claus rally? Tune in around 2PM on Tuesday to find out.
For the week, the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were up 1.9%, 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. Commodities were mixed. Gold and silver were up 1.4% and 2.4%, while Oil and Copper were down 0.5% and 1.8%. Gold stocks as represented by the XAU were up 1.9%.
Continue reading ‘Time & Money Review 12/07/07 – Bernanke: Saint or Grinch?’
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